IMF projects Syrian economy to grow more than 10% in 2026

The International Monetary Fund has said the Syrian economy is continuing to recover and projected growth of more than 10 per cent in 2026, roughly double the previous year's pace. The forecast, part of the Fund's latest assessment, points to a broad-based rebound even as the country contends with significant regional and domestic challenges.

What is driving the recovery

According to the IMF's mission chief for Syria, Ron van Rooden, the economy began recovering in 2025, helped by improving consumer and investor confidence, the return of around 1.5 million refugees, and Syria's gradual reintegration into the regional and global economy — which helped offset the impact of drought on farming. For 2026, the Fund attributed the projected double-digit growth to a strong recovery in agriculture on the back of better rainfall, higher oil and gas production, improved electricity supplies, continued expansion in trade and services, the ongoing return of refugees, a marked rise in visitor numbers, and reform policies aimed at strengthening macroeconomic stability and encouraging private sector-led growth. The IMF said it expects economic performance to remain strong into 2027.

Public finances improving

The Fund noted a significant improvement in public finances, saying the central government budget recorded a limited surplus in 2025 as spending was kept in line with available resources, with revenues expected to rise further. The 2026 budget, it said, aims to increase spending on health care, education, wages and the rehabilitation of basic infrastructure, with an emphasis on strengthening social safety nets. The IMF team met Finance Minister Mohammad Yisr Barnieh, Central Bank Governor Safwat Raslan and other senior officials, and praised what it called constructive and transparent discussions.

The challenges that remain

For all the optimism, the IMF was clear that serious challenges persist. Poverty remains widespread, and the Fund said strong international support is still needed to ease hardship — including among returning refugees and internally displaced people. It cautioned that Syria's ability to raise external financing will depend on progress in addressing the country's legacy debts. Inflation, which slowed sharply as the Syrian pound stabilised, is expected to pick up again in 2026 amid strong domestic demand and higher import prices, before easing in 2027.

A turnaround in context

The brightening outlook follows the removal of international sanctions — including the repeal of the Caesar Act — which has lowered trade costs and eased access to international finance, alongside a stabilisation of the currency and a slowdown in inflation over the past year. Taken together, the IMF framed the picture as an economy moving into an accelerated recovery phase, while stressing that sustaining it will require continued reform and outside support.